Prediction markets vs. polls
On the eve of the election (November 2), which pointed to the winner more often: the betting-market price or the polling average?
Votes are being counted: this page updates every minute.
How prediction markets work
What is a prediction market?
A market where people buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if something happens, such as a party winning a race. The price, between $0 and $1, reads as the market's probability for that outcome.
How are they different from polls?
A poll measures what voters think at one moment; a market sums up what traders expect to happen, blending polls, history and other signals. Markets give probabilities; polls give vote shares.
Are they legal in the U.S.?
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket serves U.S. customers under different terms. The rules are still changing.
One caution: picking the winner isn't the same as being well calibrated. A market that gives a candidate 70% should be wrong in about three of every ten such races; never missing would suggest it was too cautious.
Poll accuracy, race by race → · Biggest upsets →
Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket, average price the day before the election. Polls: Polling Desk's final average. A race counts when the market favorite is above 50.5% or the polling average isn't tied.