The biggest upsets of 2026
Races won by the candidate who trailed in the polling average or the betting markets the day before the election, biggest surprise first.
Votes are being counted: this page updates every minute.
This page fills in as races with polls or betting markets are called.
How accurate were the polls and markets? → · Closest races →
Polls: our final average. Markets: the average Kalshi and Polymarket price the day before the election. Result margin: the latest count.