How accurate were the 2026 polls?
We compared the final polling average and the betting markets' odds from the day before the election with the results, in every race called between a Democrat and a Republican. The page updates as races are called.
This page fills in as races are called, starting election night, November 3.
How this is calculated
- Polls: the same average shown on each race page, from the final weeks of polling, as a Democrat-minus-Republican margin.
- Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket's closing prices on November 2, the day before the election, averaged.
- Result: the vote margin from civicAPI. Until counting finishes, margins can still move by a few tenths.
- Only races called between a Democrat and a Republican are included.
Pollster ratings · How to read a poll · Methodology · What changed