How the president's party does in midterm elections
It's one of the most reliable patterns in American politics: in 18 of the 20 midterms since 1946, the president's party lost House seats, 26 on average. It gained only in 1998 and 2002. In the Senate the pattern is weaker: the president's party lost seats 13 times and gained 6 times.
2026
The president's party (Republican) defends the 220 House seats it won in 2024 and a 53-seat Senate majority. The result will be added here.
Every midterm since 1946
| Year | President | House | Chart | Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Joe Biden (D) | -9 | +1 | |
| 2018 | Donald Trump (R) | -41 | +2 | |
| 2014 | Barack Obama (D) | -13 | -9 | |
| 2010 | Barack Obama (D) | -63 | -6 | |
| 2006 | George W. Bush (R) | -30 | -6 | |
| 2002 | George W. Bush (R) | +8 | +2 | |
| 1998 | Bill Clinton (D) | +4 | 0 | |
| 1994 | Bill Clinton (D) | -54 | -8 | |
| 1990 | George H. W. Bush (R) | -8 | -1 | |
| 1986 | Ronald Reagan (R) | -5 | -8 | |
| 1982 | Ronald Reagan (R) | -26 | +1 | |
| 1978 | Jimmy Carter (D) | -15 | -3 | |
| 1974 | Gerald R. Ford (R) | -48 | -5 | |
| 1970 | Richard Nixon (R) | -12 | +2 | |
| 1966 | Lyndon B. Johnson (D) | -47 | -4 | |
| 1962 | John F. Kennedy (D) | -4 | +3 | |
| 1958 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) | -48 | -13 | |
| 1954 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) | -18 | -1 | |
| 1950 | Harry S. Truman (D) | -28 | -6 | |
| 1946 | Harry S. Truman (D) | -56 | -12 |
Average 1946–2022: House -25.7, Senate -3.6. Biggest House loss: 63 seats in 2010.
Why does it happen?
Political scientists point to a few reasons: voters unhappy with the president turn out more than satisfied ones; independents tend to check the governing party; and the party that won the White House often holds seats it won narrowly two years earlier, which are the first to fall.
Source: The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), "Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections".