Texas Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ken Paxton at 45.7%, James Talarico at 48.7%, John Cornyn at 37%, Wesley Hunt at 17.6%, based on 146 polls ending between 7/10/2022 and 10/27/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Texas Senate race 2026 over time
146 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.7%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.7% | 119 | 10/27/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 86 | 10/27/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 59 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 39 | 3/2/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 146 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 41.7% |
| James Talarico | 45.9% |
| John Cornyn | 33% |
| Wesley Hunt | 19.5% |
| Ted Brown | 2.5% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.1% |
| Colin Allred | 40% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 0.9% |
Individual polls (146)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/18/2025 | GBAO | 800 LV |
Colin Allred (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,500 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Ronny Jackson (R)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,500 LV |
Colin Allred (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Emerson College | 370 RV |
Colin Allred (D)
Emily Morgul (D)
Michael Swanson (D)
Terry Virts (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Emerson College | 491 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Leo Wyatt (R)
Barrett McNabb (R)
Virgil Bierschwale (R)
Andrew Alvarez (R)
Tony Schmoker (R)
Rennie Hill Mann (R)
Gulrez Khan (R)
Alexander Duncan (R)
|
| 8/6/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 7/18/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
421 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 7/7/2025 | NRSC | 566 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Colin Allred (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
Beto O’Rourke (D)
|
| 6/25/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
904 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 6/22/2025 |
Pulse Decision Science
for Lone Star Liberty PAC |
806 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 6/10/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
614 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 5/28/2025 |
UpONE Insights
for Education Freedom Institute |
600 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 5/19/2025 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,200 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 5/19/2025 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 510 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 5/13/2025 |
Quantus Insights
for Trending Politics |
600 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 4/30/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
617 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 4/17/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
605 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 3/25/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
529 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 10/23/2022 |
CWS Research
for Defend Texas Liberty PAC |
823 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
Chip Roy (R)
Ronny Jackson (R)
|
| 7/10/2022 |
CWS Research
for Defend Texas Liberty PAC |
1,918 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|