Texas Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ken Paxton at 45.7%, James Talarico at 48.7%, John Cornyn at 37%, Wesley Hunt at 17.6%, based on 146 polls ending between 7/10/2022 and 10/27/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Texas Senate race 2026 over time
146 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.7%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.7% | 119 | 10/27/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 86 | 10/27/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 59 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 39 | 3/2/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 146 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 41.7% |
| James Talarico | 45.9% |
| John Cornyn | 33% |
| Wesley Hunt | 19.5% |
| Ted Brown | 2.5% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.1% |
| Colin Allred | 40% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 0.9% |
Individual polls (146)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/3/2025 | co/efficient | 1,022 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 12/2/2025 |
Public Policy Polling
for Senate Majority PAC |
527 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 11/26/2025 |
Change Research
for Agave Social Welfare Fund |
1,189 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
|
| 11/25/2025 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
600 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 11/22/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
857 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 11/17/2025 | Ragnar Research Partners | 1,000 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 11/17/2025 | Ragnar Research Partners | 1,000 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 11/6/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
811 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 10/30/2025 | Harper Polling | 614 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 10/29/2025 | Impact Research | 836 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 10/10/2025 | Hunt Research | 1,097 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 10/8/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
839 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 10/6/2025 |
Cygnal Political
for Plymouth Union Public Advocacy |
600 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Generic Democrat (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston/Texas Southern University | 1,650 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston/Texas Southern University | 1,650 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 9/28/2025 |
Deep Root Analytics
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
1,142 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 9/24/2025 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1,032 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 9/24/2025 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1,032 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 9/22/2025 |
Ragnar Research Partners
for One Nation |
760 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 9/16/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
842 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 8/29/2025 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
843 RV |
Generic Republican (R)
Generic Democrat (D)
|
| 8/29/2025 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
278 RV |
Beto O’Rourke (D)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Colin Allred (D)
James Talarico (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
|
| 8/29/2025 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
346 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 8/27/2025 | co/efficient | 818 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 8/26/2025 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Standing For Texas |
725 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|