Texas Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ken Paxton at 45.7%, James Talarico at 48.7%, John Cornyn at 37%, Wesley Hunt at 17.6%, based on 146 polls ending between 7/10/2022 and 10/27/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Texas Senate race 2026 over time
146 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.7%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.7% | 119 | 10/27/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 86 | 10/27/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 59 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 39 | 3/2/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 146 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 41.7% |
| James Talarico | 45.9% |
| John Cornyn | 33% |
| Wesley Hunt | 19.5% |
| Ted Brown | 2.5% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.1% |
| Colin Allred | 40% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 0.9% |
Individual polls (146)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/22/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 2/22/2026 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 445 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/22/2026 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 488 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/16/2026 |
YouGov
for University of Texas |
369 RV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/16/2026 |
YouGov
for University of Texas |
350 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
Virgil Bierschwale (R)
Gulrez Khan (R)
Sara Canady (R)
Anna Bender (R)
John Adefope (R)
|
| 2/12/2026 |
Hart Research Associates
for Forward Texas |
803 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 2/12/2026 | Impact Research | 800 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
|
| 2/12/2026 |
McLaughlin & Associates
for Standing For Texas |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/11/2026 | Pulse Decision Science | 800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/8/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
1,000 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/3/2026 |
Pulse Decision Science
for Lone Star Liberty PAC |
801 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/2/2026 | J.L. Partners | 600 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 2/1/2026 |
Ragnar Research Partners
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
750 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 1/31/2026 | University of Houston/YouGov | 1,502 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/31/2026 | University of Houston/YouGov | 1,502 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/21/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
1,290 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/15/2026 | HIT Strategies | 1,005 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/12/2026 | Emerson College | 1,165 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/12/2026 | Emerson College | 1,165 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/7/2026 | Harper Polling | 600 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 12/17/2025 |
Pulse Decision Science
for Lone Star Liberty PAC |
809 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 12/11/2025 | Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,600 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 12/4/2025 | Impact Research | 800 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 12/4/2025 |
McLaughlin & Associates
for Standing For Texas |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 12/3/2025 | J.L. Partners | 600 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|