Texas Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ken Paxton at 45.6%, James Talarico at 48.7%, John Cornyn at 37%, Wesley Hunt at 17.6%, based on 145 polls ending between 7/10/2022 and 10/27/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Texas Senate race 2026 over time
145 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.6%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.6% | 118 | 10/27/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 85 | 10/27/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 59 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 39 | 3/2/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 145 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 41.7% |
| James Talarico | 45.8% |
| John Cornyn | 33% |
| Wesley Hunt | 19.5% |
| Ted Brown | 2.4% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.1% |
| Colin Allred | 40% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 0.9% |
Individual polls (145)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/4/2026 | Quantus Insights | 800 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 6/4/2026 |
ReconMR/Siena University
for Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service |
807 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 5/28/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
1,670 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 5/23/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Lone Star Rising PAC |
643 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 5/6/2026 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,223 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 4/20/2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,018 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 4/20/2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,018 LV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 4/20/2026 |
YouGov
for University of Texas |
1,200 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 4/12/2026 |
YouGov
for University of Texas |
1,200 RV |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 3/17/2026 |
Impact Research
for James Talarico |
900 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 3/5/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Senate Majority PAC |
576 A |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 3/5/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Senate Majority PAC |
576 A |
John Cornyn (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 3/2/2026 | YouGov | 1,659 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
Gulrez Khan (R)
Sara Canady (R)
Virgil Bierschwale (R)
Anna Bender (R)
John Adefope (R)
|
| 3/2/2026 | YouGov | 2,408 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/28/2026 |
Emerson College
for KXAN News | Nexstar |
547 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
Anna Bender (R)
Sara Canady (R)
Gulrez Khan (R)
John Adefope (R)
Virgil Bierschwale (R)
|
| 2/28/2026 |
Emerson College
for KXAN News | Nexstar |
850 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/26/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 2/26/2026 | Quantus Insights | 939 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/25/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 2/25/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Lone Star Rising PAC |
599 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/24/2026 | Blueprint Polling | 529 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
Anna Bender (R)
Gulrez Khan (R)
Sara Canady (R)
John Adefope (R)
Virgil Bierschwale (R)
|
| 2/24/2026 | Blueprint Polling | 472 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/24/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|
| 2/23/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
Wesley Hunt (R)
|
| 2/22/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
John Cornyn (R)
|