Texas Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ken Paxton at 45.7%, James Talarico at 48.7%, John Cornyn at 37%, Wesley Hunt at 17.6%, based on 144 polls ending between 7/10/2022 and 10/26/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Texas Senate race 2026 over time
144 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.7%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.7% | 117 | 10/26/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 84 | 10/26/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 59 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 39 | 3/2/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 144 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 41.7% |
| James Talarico | 45.8% |
| John Cornyn | 33% |
| Wesley Hunt | 19.5% |
| Ted Brown | 2.4% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.1% |
| Colin Allred | 40% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 0.9% |
Individual polls (144)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/26/2026 |
Big Data Poll
for Public Polling Project |
698 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/24/2026 |
Stratus Intelligence
for Texans for a Conservative Majority |
865 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 9/22/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
1,007 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/20/2026 | Marist University | 1,139 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 9/19/2026 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,800 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/17/2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1,079 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/14/2026 |
Emerson College
for Nexstar Media |
1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/11/2026 | ReconMR/Siena University | 614 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 9/9/2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/4/2026 |
YouGov
for Univision |
1,000 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 9/1/2026 | Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 895 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 8/26/2026 |
Overton Insights
for Texas Public Policy Foundation |
1,167 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 8/24/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 8/13/2026 | The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 1,218 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 8/10/2026 |
Emerson College
for Nexstar Media |
1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 7/31/2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 7/31/2026 |
YouGov Blue
for 254 Labs |
1,001 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 7/30/2026 |
ReconMR/Siena University
for Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service |
619 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 7/30/2026 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,200 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 7/27/2026 |
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News |
1,006 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 7/17/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
1,048 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 6/28/2026 | A2 Insights | 618 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 6/27/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 656 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 6/12/2026 | Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 1,200 RV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 6/4/2026 | Quantus Insights | 800 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|