Texas Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ken Paxton at 45.7%, James Talarico at 48.7%, John Cornyn at 37%, Wesley Hunt at 17.6%, based on 144 polls ending between 7/10/2022 and 10/26/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Texas Senate race 2026 over time
144 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.7%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.7% | 117 | 10/26/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 84 | 10/26/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 59 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 39 | 3/2/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 144 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 41.7% |
| James Talarico | 45.8% |
| John Cornyn | 33% |
| Wesley Hunt | 19.5% |
| Ted Brown | 2.4% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.1% |
| Colin Allred | 40% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 0.9% |
Individual polls (144)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/26/2026 |
YouGov Blue
for 254 Labs |
1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/21/2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/21/2026 |
YouGov
for N+ Univision |
1,000 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/20/2026 | VoteHub/Verasight | 601 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/19/2026 |
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News |
1,398 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/19/2026 |
Emerson College
for Nexstar Media |
1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/18/2026 | Pollfinity | 278 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/18/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
969 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/16/2026 |
YouGov
for CBS News |
1,458 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/15/2026 |
Cor Strategies
for Heritage Action |
1,409 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/14/2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/14/2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/14/2026 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 2,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/13/2026 |
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group
for The Cook Political Report |
934 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/11/2026 | Marist University | 1,196 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/11/2026 | Quantus Insights | 854 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/8/2026 | ReconMR/Siena University | 617 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 10/8/2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1,086 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/5/2026 |
YouGov
for University of Texas |
861 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 10/5/2026 | YouGov | 3,623 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 9/30/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 615 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 9/28/2026 |
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News |
881 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| 9/28/2026 |
Guidant Polling and Strategy
for Public First Action |
800 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/28/2026 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 850 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| 9/27/2026 | Pulse Decision Science | 800 LV |
Ken Paxton (R)
James Talarico (D)
|