Florida Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ashley Moody at 50%, Angie Nixon at 43.9%, Alexander Vindman at 40%, Neil Gillespie at 2.5%, based on 41 polls ending between 10/3/2025 and 10/27/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Florida Senate race 2026 over time
41 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ashley Moody 50%
Angie Nixon 43.9%
Alexander Vindman 40%
Neil Gillespie 2.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | 50% | 40 | 10/27/2026 |
| Angie Nixon | 43.9% | 24 | 10/27/2026 |
| Alexander Vindman | 40% | 14 | 7/17/2026 |
| Neil Gillespie | 2.5% | 4 | 10/23/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 41 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | 48.2% |
| Angie Nixon | 42.5% |
| Alexander Vindman | 42.1% |
| Neil Gillespie | 2.4% |
| Jennifer Jenkins | 37.5% |
| Generic Republican | 51% |
| Generic Democrat | 42% |
Individual polls (41)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/7/2026 |
McLaughlin & Associates
for Associated Industries of Florida |
800 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 5/21/2026 | Global Strategy Group | 1,000 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 5/16/2026 |
Change Research
for Freedom Project USA |
2,070 LV |
Alexander Vindman (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 5/16/2026 |
Change Research
for Freedom Project USA |
1,593 LV |
Alexander Vindman (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 5/9/2026 |
Cherry Communications
for Florida Chamber of Commerce |
604 LV |
Alexander Vindman (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 4/13/2026 | Stetson University | 848 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 4/13/2026 | Stetson University | 848 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 4/9/2026 |
Echelon Insights
for NetChoice |
406 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 4/3/2026 |
MDW Communications
for EDGE Communications |
1,834 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 4/3/2026 | Public Policy Polling | 574 RV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 3/31/2026 | Emerson College | 1,125 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 3/31/2026 | Emerson College | 1,125 LV |
Angie Nixon (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 3/2/2026 | University of North Florida | 786 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 3/2/2026 | University of North Florida | 768 LV |
Angie Nixon (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 10/25/2025 |
University of North Florida
for Florida Watch |
728 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Jennifer Jenkins (D)
|
| 10/3/2025 |
The Tyson Group
for Plymouth Union Public Advocacy |
800 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Jennifer Jenkins (D)
|