Florida Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Ashley Moody at 50%, Angie Nixon at 43.9%, Alexander Vindman at 40%, Neil Gillespie at 2.5%, based on 41 polls ending between 10/3/2025 and 10/27/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Florida Senate race 2026 over time
41 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ashley Moody 50%
Angie Nixon 43.9%
Alexander Vindman 40%
Neil Gillespie 2.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | 50% | 40 | 10/27/2026 |
| Angie Nixon | 43.9% | 24 | 10/27/2026 |
| Alexander Vindman | 40% | 14 | 7/17/2026 |
| Neil Gillespie | 2.5% | 4 | 10/23/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 41 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | 48.2% |
| Angie Nixon | 42.5% |
| Alexander Vindman | 42.1% |
| Neil Gillespie | 2.4% |
| Jennifer Jenkins | 37.5% |
| Generic Republican | 51% |
| Generic Democrat | 42% |
Individual polls (41)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/27/2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/27/2026 |
St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics |
916 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/25/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 813 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/23/2026 |
Echelon Insights
for NetChoice |
515 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
Neil Gillespie (I)
|
| 10/20/2026 | co/efficient | 1,014 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
Neil Gillespie (I)
|
| 10/19/2026 | University of North Florida | 1,414 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/15/2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/15/2026 |
YouGov
for Univision |
825 RV |
Generic Republican (R)
Generic Democrat (D)
|
| 10/10/2026 |
MDW
for EDGE Communications |
800 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/9/2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 716 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/7/2026 |
St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics |
836 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/5/2026 | YouGov | 3,812 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 10/4/2026 |
Targoz Market Research
for The James Madison Institute |
857 LV |
Angie Nixon (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 10/4/2026 |
Targoz Market Research
for The James Madison Institute |
1,200 RV |
Angie Nixon (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 10/1/2026 |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
for NBC 6 Miami | Telemundo |
625 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
Neil Gillespie (I)
|
| 9/27/2026 |
Change Research
for Freedom Project USA |
1,063 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 9/21/2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 600 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
Neil Gillespie (I)
|
| 9/21/2026 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 830 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 9/17/2026 |
St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics |
913 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 9/10/2026 | Quantus Insights | 733 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 9/9/2026 |
Change Research
for Freedom Project USA |
1,107 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| 7/17/2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Alexander Vindman (D)
|
| 7/17/2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV |
Angie Nixon (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 6/14/2026 |
Change Research
for Freedom Project USA |
1,273 RV |
Alexander Vindman (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|
| 6/14/2026 |
Change Research
for Freedom Project USA |
1,015 LV |
Alexander Vindman (D)
Ashley Moody (R)
|