OH-09 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
77% Dem
Rep 23%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Marcy Kaptur | 78% |
| Derek Merrin | 23% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Marcy Kaptur | 76% |
| Derek Merrin | 24% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 66% | 10/29/2026: 78% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 68% | 10/29/2026: 76% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/8/2026: 28% | 10/29/2026: 23% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 32% | 10/29/2026: 24% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Marcy Kaptur (D)
48%
Derek Merrin (R)
48%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Marcy Kaptur | Democrat |
| Kathy McKinstry | Other |
| Derek Merrin | Republican |
OH-09 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Derek Merrin 48%
Marcy Kaptur 48%
Alea Nadeem 4%
David Gedert 3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Merrin | 48% | 3 | 9/23/2026 |
| Marcy Kaptur | 48% | 2 | 9/23/2026 |
| Alea Nadeem | 4% | 1 | 4/16/2026 |
| David Gedert | 3% | 1 | 4/20/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 9/22–9/23 | 481 LV |
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Derek Merrin (R)
|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 4/18–4/20 | 400 LV |
Derek Merrin (R)
Marcy Kaptur (D)
David Gedert (L)
|
| J.L. Partners | 4/11–4/16 | 600 LV |
Derek Merrin (R)
Josh Williams (R)
Madison Sheahan (R)
Alea Nadeem (R)
|