AZ-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
31% Dem
Rep 69%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Jonathan Nez | 32% |
| Eli Crane | 69% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jonathan Nez | 32% |
| Eli Crane | 70% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/10/2026: 29% | 10/29/2026: 32% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 33% | 10/29/2026: 32% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/3/2026: 67% | 10/29/2026: 69% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 66% | 10/29/2026: 70% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.0
Jonathan Nez (D)
50%
Eli Crane (R)
48%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | Republican |
| Jonathan Nez | Democrat |
| Curtis Goodwin | Libertarian |
AZ-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Eli Crane 48%
Jonathan Nez 50%
Curtis Goodwin 7%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 48% | 3 | 10/14/2026 |
| Jonathan Nez | 50% | 3 | 10/14/2026 |
| Curtis Goodwin | 7% | 1 | 6/15/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 345 LV |
Eli Crane (R)
Jonathan Nez (D)
|
| GBAO | 8/21–8/24 | 500 LV |
Eli Crane (R)
Jonathan Nez (D)
|
| GBAO | 6/11–6/15 | 500 LV |
Eli Crane (R)
Jonathan Nez (D)
Curtis Goodwin (L)
|