Alaska Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Dan Sullivan at 47%, Mary Peltola at 49.3%, Gerald Heikes at 0.7%, Dustin Darden at 2.7%, based on 24 polls ending between 4/25/2023 and 10/16/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Alaska Senate race 2026 over time
24 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Dan Sullivan 47%
Mary Peltola 49.3%
Gerald Heikes 0.7%
Dustin Darden 2.7%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 47% | 23 | 10/16/2026 |
| Mary Peltola | 49.3% | 23 | 10/16/2026 |
| Gerald Heikes | 0.7% | 3 | 9/24/2026 |
| Dustin Darden | 2.7% | 2 | 6/7/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 24 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 48.4% |
| Dan Sullivan | 46.3% |
| Gerald Heikes | 2.4% |
| Dustin Darden | 3.9% |
| Dan Sullvian | 46% |
| Generic Democrat | 43% |
| Dan J. Sullivan | 2.8% |
Individual polls (24)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16/2026 | Data for Progress | 671 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 10/15/2026 | Public Policy Polling | 578 RV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 10/10/2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 10/1/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 504 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 9/30/2026 | Quantus Insights | 758 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 9/24/2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1,079 LV |
Dan Sullivan (R)
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan J. Sullivan (R)
Gerald Heikes (R)
|
| 9/17/2026 | co/efficient | 799 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 9/11/2026 |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
for AARP |
800 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 8/23/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,495 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 8/5/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,371 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 6/29/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 593 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 6/7/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,393 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
Gerald Heikes (R)
Dustin Darden (R)
|
| 5/17/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
Dustin Darden (R)
Gerald Heikes (R)
|
| 4/19/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,946 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 4/19/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | — LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 3/22/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,283 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 1/17/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee |
611 RV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 1/11/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,681 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 11/13/2025 |
The Tyson Group
for Plymouth Union Public Advocacy |
600 LV |
Generic Democrat (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 10/23/2025 | Data for Progress | 823 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 10/15/2025 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,708 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullvian
|
| 8/1/2025 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,613 LV |
Dan Sullivan (R)
Mary Peltola (D)
|
| 7/27/2025 | Data for Progress | 678 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| 4/25/2023 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,261 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|