Virginia Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
99% Dem
Rep 1%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Mark Warner | >99% |
| Bert Mizusawa | 1% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Mark Warner | 98% |
| Bert Mizusawa | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: >99% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 1% | 10/29/2026: 1% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
6 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Mark Warner (D)
49.3%
Bert Mizusawa
32.5%
David Williams
32.5%
Kim Farington
32%
Mark Moran
3.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mark Warner | Democrat |
| Bert Mizusawa | Republican |
| Write-In | Other |
Virginia Senate race: polls over time
6 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Mark Moran 3.5%
Mark Warner 49.3%
Bert Mizusawa 32.5%
David Williams 32.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Moran | 3.5% | 6 | 6/16/2026 |
| Mark Warner | 49.3% | 6 | 6/16/2026 |
| Bert Mizusawa | 32.5% | 2 | 6/16/2026 |
| David Williams | 32.5% | 2 | 6/16/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 6/12–6/16 | 996 RV |
Mark Warner (D)
Bert Mizusawa
Mark Moran
|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 6/12–6/16 | 996 RV |
Mark Warner (D)
Kim Farington
Mark Moran
|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 6/12–6/16 | — LV |
Mark Warner (D)
Bert Mizusawa
Mark Moran
|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 6/12–6/16 | — LV |
Mark Warner (D)
Kim Farington
Mark Moran
|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 6/12–6/16 | — LV |
Mark Warner (D)
David Williams
Mark Moran
|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 6/12–6/16 | 996 RV |
Mark Warner (D)
David Williams
Mark Moran
|
| Responsive Management | 12/18–1/15 | 806 A |
Mark Warner (D)
Glenn Youngkin (R)
|