Texas Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
68% Dem
Rep 32%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | James Talarico | 69% |
| Ken Paxton | 33% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | James Talarico | 68% |
| Ken Paxton | 32% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 45% | 10/29/2026: 69% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 46% | 10/29/2026: 68% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 55% | 10/29/2026: 33% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 54% | 10/29/2026: 32% |
Poll average
26 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.7
James Talarico (D)
48.5%
Ken Paxton (R)
45.8%
Ted Brown (L)
2.6%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| James Talarico | Democrat |
| Ken Paxton | Republican |
| Ted Brown | Libertarian |
Texas Senate race: polls over time
108 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ken Paxton 45.7%
James Talarico 48.7%
John Cornyn 37%
Wesley Hunt 17.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 45.7% | 90 | 10/26/2026 |
| James Talarico | 48.7% | 79 | 10/26/2026 |
| John Cornyn | 37% | 33 | 4/20/2026 |
| Wesley Hunt | 17.6% | 23 | 3/2/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov Blue | 10/21–10/26 | 1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| ActiVote | 10/17–10/21 | 400 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| YouGov | 10/13–10/21 | 1,000 RV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| VoteHub/Verasight | 10/1–10/20 | 601 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 10/15–10/19 | 1,398 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| Emerson College | 10/17–10/19 | 1,000 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| Pollfinity | 10/15–10/18 | 278 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| Slingshot Strategies | 10/15–10/18 | 969 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Ted Brown (L)
|
| YouGov | 10/8–10/16 | 1,458 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|
| Cor Strategies | 10/10–10/15 | 1,409 LV |
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
|