Montana Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
<1% Dem
Rep 89%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Alani Bankhead | 1% |
| Kurt Alme | 89% | |
| Seth Bodnar | 10% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Alani Bankhead | <1% |
| Kurt Alme | 88% | |
| Independent | 11% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 2% | 10/29/2026: 1% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: <1% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 79% | 10/29/2026: 89% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 80% | 10/29/2026: 88% |
Poll average
5 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+25.0
Kurt Alme (R)
41.6%
Seth Bodnar (I)
30.4%
Alani Bankhead (D)
16.6%
Kyle Austin (L)
2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | Republican |
| Alani Bankhead | Democrat |
| Kyle Austin | Libertarian |
| Seth Bodnar | Independent |
Montana Senate race: polls over time
35 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Kurt Alme 40.8%
Seth Bodnar 31.5%
Alani Bankhead 16%
Kyle Austin 2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 40.8% | 33 | 10/23/2026 |
| Seth Bodnar | 31.5% | 27 | 10/23/2026 |
| Alani Bankhead | 16% | 23 | 10/23/2026 |
| Kyle Austin | 2% | 16 | 10/23/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 10/22–10/23 | 410 LV |
Seth Bodnar (I)
Kurt Alme (R)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| Quantus Insights | 10/15–10/18 | 686 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Seth Bodnar (I)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| Peak Insights | 10/7–10/12 | 500 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Seth Bodnar (I)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 10/6–10/8 | 405 LV |
Seth Bodnar (I)
Kurt Alme (R)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 9/19–9/24 | 604 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Seth Bodnar (I)
|
| Aspect Strategic | 9/7–9/15 | 715 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Seth Bodnar (I)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| Quantus Insights | 9/14–9/15 | 625 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Seth Bodnar (I)
|
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 8/27–9/7 | 845 RV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Seth Bodnar (I)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| Peak Insights | 8/23–8/25 | 600 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Seth Bodnar (I)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Kyle Austin (L)
|
| Hart Research Associates | 8/1–8/4 | 800 LV |
Kurt Alme (R)
Alani Bankhead (D)
Seth Bodnar (I)
Kyle Austin (L)
|