Minnesota Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
90% Dem
Rep 10%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Peggy Flanagan | 90% |
| Michele Tafoya | 11% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Peggy Flanagan | 92% |
| Michele Tafoya | 8% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/29/2026: 90% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/29/2026: 92% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 11% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 8% |
Poll average
9 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+4.8
Peggy Flanagan (D)
47.7%
Michele Tafoya (R)
42.9%
Rebecca Whiting (L)
2.4%
Marisa Simonetti (I)
2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Marisa Simonetti | Independent |
| Rebecca Whiting | Libertarian |
| Peggy Flanagan | Democrat |
| Michele Tafoya | Republican |
| Write-in | Other |
Minnesota Senate race: polls over time
35 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Peggy Flanagan 47.9%
Michele Tafoya 42.6%
Angie Craig 38%
Rebecca Whiting 2.4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 47.9% | 27 | 10/26/2026 |
| Michele Tafoya | 42.6% | 23 | 10/26/2026 |
| Angie Craig | 38% | 12 | 8/4/2026 |
| Rebecca Whiting | 2.4% | 9 | 10/15/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/19–10/26 | 752 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 10/21–10/22 | 1,194 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 10/13–10/15 | 1,079 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
|
| SurveyUSA | 10/8–10/12 | 718 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 10/5–10/7 | 800 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| Morning Consult | 10/2–10/7 | 1,000 RV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| GQR | 10/1–10/4 | 800 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| Big Data Poll | 9/29–9/30 | 622 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 9/28–9/29 | 1,200 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
|
| co/efficient | 9/14–9/15 | 833 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|