Minnesota Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Peggy Flanagan at 47.9%, Michele Tafoya at 42.6%, Angie Craig at 38%, Rebecca Whiting at 2.4%, based on 40 polls ending between 2/15/2025 and 10/26/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Minnesota Senate race 2026 over time
40 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Peggy Flanagan 47.9%
Michele Tafoya 42.6%
Angie Craig 38%
Rebecca Whiting 2.4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 47.9% | 31 | 10/26/2026 |
| Michele Tafoya | 42.6% | 24 | 10/26/2026 |
| Angie Craig | 38% | 15 | 8/4/2026 |
| Rebecca Whiting | 2.4% | 9 | 10/15/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 40 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | 45.4% |
| Michele Tafoya | 43% |
| Angie Craig | 36.7% |
| Rebecca Whiting | 2% |
| Marisa Simonetti | 2% |
| Royce White | 12.2% |
| Adam Schwarze | 7.2% |
| Tom Weiler | 3.9% |
Individual polls (40)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/26/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 752 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| 10/22/2026 | Victory Insights | 1,194 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| 10/15/2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1,079 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
|
| 10/12/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) |
718 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 10/7/2026 |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
for KARE 11 | Minnesota Star Tribune |
800 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| 10/7/2026 |
Morning Consult
for The Daily Agenda |
1,000 RV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| 10/4/2026 |
GQR
for Senate Majority PAC |
800 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 9/30/2026 |
Big Data Poll
for Public Polling Project |
622 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 9/29/2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
|
| 9/15/2026 | co/efficient | 833 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 9/14/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) |
654 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 9/10/2026 | Quantus Insights | 720 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
|
| 9/2/2026 |
TIPP Insights
for League of American Workers |
1,192 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 8/17/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) |
661 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)
Marisa Simonetti (I)
Rebecca Whiting (L)
|
| 8/4/2026 |
Deep Root Analytics
for Minnesota Forward |
652 LV |
Michele Tafoya (R)
Adam Schwarze (R)
Royce White (R)
|
| 8/4/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV Minneapolis |
458 LV |
Michele Tafoya (R)
Royce White (R)
Adam Schwarze (R)
Tom Weiler (R)
|
| 8/4/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV Minneapolis |
578 LV |
Angie Craig (D)
Peggy Flanagan (D)
|
| 7/24/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association (DLGA) |
672 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Angie Craig (D)
|
| 7/20/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KAAL-TV | KSTP-TV Minneapolis | WDIO-TV Duluth |
513 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Angie Craig (D)
Generic Democrat (D)
|
| 7/20/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KAAL-TV | KSTP-TV Minneapolis | WDIO-TV Duluth |
478 LV |
Michele Tafoya (R)
Royce White (R)
Generic Republican (R)
Tom Weiler (R)
Adam Schwarze (R)
|
| 6/26/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association (DLGA) |
604 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Angie Craig (D)
|
| 6/16/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV Minneapolis |
450 LV |
Michele Tafoya (R)
Royce White (R)
Generic Republican (R)
Tom Weiler (R)
Adam Schwarze (R)
|
| 6/16/2026 |
SurveyUSA
for KSTP-TV Minneapolis |
513 LV |
Angie Craig (D)
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Generic Democrat (D)
|
| 6/10/2026 |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
for KARE-TV | Minnesota Star Tribune | U. of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication |
800 LV |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 6/3/2026 | GQR | 500 LV |
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Angie Craig (D)
|