Michigan Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
71% Dem
Rep 29%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Abdul El-Sayed | 71% |
| Mike Rogers | 31% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Abdul El-Sayed | 72% |
| Mike Rogers | 28% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 78% | 10/29/2026: 71% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 76% | 10/29/2026: 72% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 23% | 10/29/2026: 31% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 24% | 10/29/2026: 28% |
Poll average
16 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+3.1
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
48.2%
Mike Rogers (R)
45.1%
Lydia Christensen (L)
1.8%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | Democrat |
| Mike Rogers | Republican |
| Lydia Christensen | Libertarian |
| Tim Long | Other |
| Douglas P. Marsh | Green |
| Walter P. Kristy | Other |
Michigan Senate race: polls over time
95 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Mike Rogers 45.7%
Abdul El-Sayed 48.5%
Haley Stevens 41.2%
Mallory McMorrow 2.1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rogers | 45.7% | 77 | 10/27/2026 |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 48.5% | 70 | 10/27/2026 |
| Haley Stevens | 41.2% | 32 | 7/31/2026 |
| Mallory McMorrow | 2.1% | 26 | 7/30/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 10/26–10/27 | 636 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 10/19–10/22 | 600 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/21–10/22 | 1,200 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 10/2–10/19 | 836 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| Marist University | 10/15–10/18 | — LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/9–10/10 | 1,200 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
Lydia Christensen (L)
Timothy Long (O)
Douglas Marsh (G)
|
| The Tyson Group | 10/6–10/8 | 600 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| Quantus Insights | 10/5–10/6 | 744 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
Lydia Christensen (L)
Douglas Marsh (G)
Timothy Long (O)
|
| YouGov | 9/22–10/4 | 3,947 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 10/1–10/1 | 682 LV |
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
Lydia Christensen (L)
Tim Long
Douglas P. Marsh
Walter P. Kristy
|