Florida Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
10% Dem
Rep 90%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Angie Nixon | 10% |
| Ashley Moody | 91% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 19% | 10/29/2026: 10% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 80% | 10/29/2026: 91% |
Poll average
16 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+6.8
Ashley Moody (R)
50%
Angie Nixon (D)
43.3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | Republican |
| Angie Nixon | Democrat |
| Neil J. Gillespie | Independent |
Florida Senate race: polls over time
39 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ashley Moody 50%
Angie Nixon 43.9%
Alexander Vindman 40%
Neil Gillespie 2.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | 50% | 38 | 10/27/2026 |
| Angie Nixon | 43.9% | 24 | 10/27/2026 |
| Alexander Vindman | 40% | 14 | 7/17/2026 |
| Neil Gillespie | 2.5% | 4 | 10/23/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 10/17–10/27 | 400 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| St. Pete Polls | 10/25–10/27 | 916 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/19–10/25 | 813 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| Echelon Insights | 10/16–10/23 | 515 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
Neil Gillespie (I)
|
| co/efficient | 10/18–10/20 | 1,014 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
Neil Gillespie (I)
|
| University of North Florida | 10/12–10/19 | 1,414 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| ActiVote | 9/27–10/15 | 400 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| YouGov | 10/2–10/15 | 825 RV |
Generic Republican (R)
Generic Democrat (D)
|
| MDW | 10/4–10/10 | 800 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 10/1–10/9 | 716 LV |
Ashley Moody (R)
Angie Nixon (D)
|