Alaska Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
68% Dem
Rep 32%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Democratic party | 68% |
| Republican party | 32% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Mary Peltola | 70% |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan | 30% | |
| Ann Diener | <1% | |
| Dustin Darden | <1% | |
| Richard Grayson | <1% | |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | <1% | |
| David Leslie | <1% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 60% | 10/29/2026: 68% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 41% | 10/29/2026: 32% |
Poll average
7 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+1.0
Mary Peltola (D)
48.3%
Dan Sullivan (R)
47.2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Gerald L. Heikes | Republican |
| Mary Peltola | Democrat |
| Dan Sullivan | Republican |
| Daniel J. Jr. Sullivan | Republican |
| Heather McElwain | Libertarian |
| Sidney “Sid” Hill | Other |
Alaska Senate race: polls over time
19 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Dan Sullivan 47%
Mary Peltola 49.3%
Gerald Heikes 0.7%
Dustin Darden 2.7%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 47% | 19 | 10/16/2026 |
| Mary Peltola | 49.3% | 18 | 10/16/2026 |
| Gerald Heikes | 0.7% | 3 | 9/24/2026 |
| Dustin Darden | 2.7% | 2 | 6/7/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 10/8–10/16 | 671 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/14–10/15 | 578 RV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/9–10/10 | 1,200 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 9/24–10/1 | 504 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| Quantus Insights | 9/28–9/30 | 758 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 9/22–9/24 | 1,079 LV |
Dan Sullivan (R)
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan J. Sullivan (R)
Gerald Heikes (R)
|
| co/efficient | 9/14–9/17 | 799 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 9/8–9/11 | 800 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 8/20–8/23 | 1,495 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 8/2–8/5 | 1,371 LV |
Mary Peltola (D)
Dan Sullivan (R)
|