WA-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
16% Dem
Rep 84%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Carmela Conroy | 16% |
| Michael Baumgartner | 84% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 28% | 10/28/2026: 16% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 70% | 10/28/2026: 84% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+30.4
Michael Baumgartner (R)
39.4%
Carmela Conroy (D)
9.1%
Marcus Riccelli (D)
5%
Nate Powell (I)
4.1%
Anthony Jensen (R)
4%
Ann Marie Danimus (I)
3.9%
Kevin Fagan (D)
2.9%
David Womack (D)
2.4%
Bajun Mavalwalla (D)
2%
Anthony Whisenhunt (D)
0%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | Republican |
| Carmela Conroy | Democrat |
WA-05 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ann Marie Danimus 3.9%
Anthony Jensen 4%
Anthony Whisenhunt 0%
Bajun Mavalwalla 2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Marie Danimus | 3.9% | 1 | 3/19/2026 |
| Anthony Jensen | 4% | 1 | 3/19/2026 |
| Anthony Whisenhunt | 0% | 1 | 3/19/2026 |
| Bajun Mavalwalla | 2% | 1 | 3/19/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 3/17–3/19 | 617 LV |
Michael Baumgartner (R)
Carmela Conroy (D)
Marcus Riccelli (D)
Nate Powell (I)
Anthony Jensen (R)
Ann Marie Danimus (I)
Kevin Fagan (D)
David Womack (D)
Bajun Mavalwalla (D)
Anthony Whisenhunt (D)
|