VA-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
42% Dem
Rep 58%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Tom Perriello | 42% |
| John McGuire | 58% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 78% | 10/29/2026: 42% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 22% | 10/29/2026: 58% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+3.0
John McGuire (R)
48.5%
Tom Perriello (D)
45.5%
Cooke Harvey (I)
6%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Tom Perriello | Democrat |
| John McGuire | Republican |
| Cooke C. Harvey | Independent |
| Write-In | Other |
VA-05 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
John McGuire 48.5%
Tom Perriello 45.5%
Cooke Harvey 6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| John McGuire | 48.5% | 3 | 9/28/2026 |
| Tom Perriello | 45.5% | 3 | 9/28/2026 |
| Cooke Harvey | 6% | 1 | 9/24/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 9/23–9/28 | 600 LV |
John McGuire (R)
Tom Perriello (D)
|
| Expedition Strategies | 9/21–9/24 | 400 LV |
John McGuire (R)
Tom Perriello (D)
Cooke Harvey (I)
|
| Expedition Strategies | 7/29–8/1 | 602 LV |
John McGuire (R)
Tom Perriello (D)
|