UT-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
5% Dem
Rep 95%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Peter Crosby | 5% |
| Blake Moore | 95% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Peter Crosby | 5% |
| Blake Moore | 94% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/21/2026: 13% | 10/29/2026: 5% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 12% | 10/29/2026: 5% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/5/2026: 88% | 10/29/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 86% | 10/29/2026: 94% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+5.0
Blake Moore (R)
39%
Peter Crosby (D)
34%
Daniel Cottam (L)
4.9%
Robert M. Moesinger
4.9%
Carlton E. Bowen
4.1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Peter Crosby | Democrat |
| Blake Moore | Republican |
| Carlton E. Bowen | Other |
| Daniel Cottam | Libertarian |
| Robert M. Moesinger | Other |
UT-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Blake Moore 39%
Karianne Lisonbee 29%
Carlton E. Bowen 4.1%
Colton Hatch 14%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Moore | 39% | 3 | 9/24/2026 |
| Karianne Lisonbee | 29% | 2 | 5/14/2026 |
| Carlton E. Bowen | 4.1% | 1 | 9/24/2026 |
| Colton Hatch | 14% | 1 | 3/26/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research | 9/10–9/24 | 515 LV |
Blake Moore (R)
Peter Crosby (D)
Carlton E. Bowen
Daniel Cottam (L)
Robert M. Moesinger
|
| Tarrance Group | 5/11–5/14 | 404 LV |
Blake Moore (R)
Karianne Lisonbee (R)
|
| Tarrance Group | 3/23–3/26 | 308 LV |
Blake Moore (R)
Karianne Lisonbee (R)
Colton Hatch (R)
|