TX-15 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
86% Dem
Rep 14%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Bobby Pulido | 87% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 13% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Bobby Pulido | 86% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 14% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/3/2026: 50% | 10/29/2026: 87% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 49% | 10/29/2026: 86% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 51% | 10/29/2026: 13% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 50% | 10/29/2026: 14% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+10.0
Bobby Pulido (D)
52.5%
Monica De La Cruz (R)
42.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | Democrat |
| Monica De La Cruz | Republican |
TX-15 House race: polls over time
7 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bobby Pulido 52.5%
Monica De La Cruz 42.5%
Henry Cuellar 19%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 52.5% | 7 | 10/16/2026 |
| Monica De La Cruz | 42.5% | 6 | 10/16/2026 |
| Henry Cuellar | 19% | 1 | 1/27/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 10/13–10/16 | — LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Monica De La Cruz (R)
|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 9/24–9/28 | 400 LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Monica De La Cruz (R)
|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 8/18–8/22 | 700 LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Monica De La Cruz (R)
|
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 7/27–7/30 | 700 LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Monica De La Cruz (R)
|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 7/23–7/27 | — LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Monica De La Cruz (R)
|
| Applecart | 5/18–5/25 | 802 LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Monica De La Cruz (R)
|
| GBAO | 1/24–1/27 | 500 LV |
Bobby Pulido (D)
Henry Cuellar (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 9/10–9/11 | 533 LV |
Monica De La Cruz (R)
Bobby Pulido (D)
|