TX-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
6% Dem
Rep 94%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Shaun Finnie | 6% |
| Steve Toth | 94% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 11% | 10/29/2026: 6% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 86% | 10/29/2026: 94% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+9.0
Steve Toth (R)
46%
Shaun Finnie (D)
37%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Shaun Finnie | Democrat |
| Steve Toth | Republican |
TX-02 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Shaun Finnie 37%
Steve Toth 46%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Finnie | 37% | 1 | 10/4/2026 |
| Steve Toth | 46% | 1 | 10/4/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 9/29–10/4 | 501 LV |
Steve Toth (R)
Shaun Finnie (D)
|
| Meeting Street Research | 10/21–10/23 | 400 LV |
Dan Crenshaw (R)
Steve Toth (R)
Thomas Manning (R)
Ava Zolari (R)
Nicholas Plumb (R)
Martin Etwop (R)
|