NC-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
83% Dem
Rep 17%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Don Davis | 83% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 17% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Don Davis | 82% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 17% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 49% | 10/29/2026: 83% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 50% | 10/29/2026: 82% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 52% | 10/29/2026: 17% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 48% | 10/29/2026: 17% |
Poll average
4 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+6.0
Don Davis (D)
47.5%
Laurie Buckhout (R)
41.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | Democrat |
| Laurie Buckhout | Republican |
| Tom Bailey | Libertarian |
NC-01 House race: polls over time
8 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Laurie Buckhout 41%
Don Davis 46.7%
Thomas Aaron Bailey 2%
Asa Buck 22.1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurie Buckhout | 41% | 8 | 10/8/2026 |
| Don Davis | 46.7% | 7 | 10/8/2026 |
| Thomas Aaron Bailey | 2% | 2 | 10/8/2026 |
| Asa Buck | 22.1% | 1 | 2/8/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 10/6–10/8 | 623 LV |
Laurie Buckhout (R)
Don Davis (D)
Thomas Aaron Bailey (L)
|
| Neighborhood Research and Media | 10/1–10/6 | 303 LV |
Don Davis (D)
Laurie Buckhout (R)
|
| GQR | 9/29–10/4 | 500 LV |
Don Davis (D)
Laurie Buckhout (R)
|
| GBAO | 9/8–9/11 | 500 LV |
Don Davis (D)
Laurie Buckhout (R)
|
| GQR | 6/22–6/28 | 500 LV |
Don Davis (D)
Laurie Buckhout (R)
|
| co/efficient | 4/25–4/29 | 842 LV |
Don Davis (D)
Laurie Buckhout (R)
|
| Emerson College | 2/6–2/8 | 500 LV |
Laurie Buckhout (R)
Asa Buck (R)
Robert Hanig (R)
Eric Rouse (R)
Ashley-Nicole Russell (R)
|
| GQR | 1/29–2/2 | 500 LV |
Don Davis (D)
Laurie Buckhout (R)
Thomas Aaron Bailey (L)
|