MT-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
46% Dem
Rep 54%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Sam Forstag | 45% |
| Aaron Flint | 56% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Sam Forstag | 46% |
| Aaron Flint | 53% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 44% | 10/29/2026: 45% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 45% | 10/29/2026: 46% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 57% | 10/29/2026: 56% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 52% | 10/29/2026: 53% |
Poll average
4 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.4
Sam Forstag (D)
47.6%
Aaron Flint (R)
45.2%
Nick Sheedy (L)
3.7%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | Republican |
| Sam Forstag | Democrat |
| Nick Sheedy | Libertarian |
MT-01 House race: polls over time
11 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Sam Forstag 47.8%
Aaron Flint 45.6%
Nick Sheedy 4.1%
Matt Rains 43%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 47.8% | 9 | 10/14/2026 |
| Aaron Flint | 45.6% | 8 | 10/14/2026 |
| Nick Sheedy | 4.1% | 3 | 9/24/2026 |
| Matt Rains | 43% | 2 | 5/5/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 329 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/12–10/14 | 541 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 9/19–9/24 | 314 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
Nick Sheedy (L)
|
| Impact Research | 9/20–9/23 | 500 LV |
Sam Forstag (D)
Aaron Flint (R)
Nick Sheedy (L)
|
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 8/27–9/7 | 375 RV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
Nick Sheedy (L)
|
| Impact Research | 6/22–6/25 | 500 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
Tim Sheehy (R)
|
| Upswing Research | 4/30–5/5 | 401 LV |
Matt Rains (D)
Aaron Flint (R)
|
| Upswing Research | 4/30–5/5 | 401 LV |
Sam Forstag (D)
Aaron Flint (R)
|
| Tulchin Research | 3/28–4/1 | 400 LV |
Ryan Busse (D)
Russell Cleveland (D)
Sam Forstag (D)
Matt Rains (D)
|
| Peak Insights | 1/12–1/15 | 400 LV |
Ryan Zinke (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
|