MT-01 House race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Sam Forstag at 47.8%, Aaron Flint at 45.6%, Nick Sheedy at 4.1%, Matt Rains at 43%, based on 11 polls ending between 11/25/2025 and 10/14/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
MT-01 House race 2026 over time
11 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Sam Forstag 47.8%
Aaron Flint 45.6%
Nick Sheedy 4.1%
Matt Rains 43%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 47.8% | 9 | 10/14/2026 |
| Aaron Flint | 45.6% | 8 | 10/14/2026 |
| Nick Sheedy | 4.1% | 3 | 9/24/2026 |
| Matt Rains | 43% | 2 | 5/5/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 11 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Sam Forstag | 41% |
| Aaron Flint | 45.2% |
| Nick Sheedy | 4.1% |
| Ryan Zinke | 45.5% |
| Ryan Busse | 41% |
| Matt Rains | 24% |
| Russell Cleveland | 20% |
| Tim Sheehy | 5% |
Individual polls (11)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/14/2026 |
Emerson College
for Poll Vault |
329 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
|
| 10/14/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC |
541 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
|
| 9/24/2026 |
American Pulse Research & Polling
for KULR-TV |
314 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
Nick Sheedy (L)
|
| 9/23/2026 | Impact Research | 500 LV |
Sam Forstag (D)
Aaron Flint (R)
Nick Sheedy (L)
|
| 9/7/2026 |
Rutgers-Eagleton
for Montana Free Press |
375 RV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
Nick Sheedy (L)
|
| 6/25/2026 | Impact Research | 500 LV |
Aaron Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
Tim Sheehy (R)
|
| 5/5/2026 |
Upswing Research
for 314 Action |
401 LV |
Matt Rains (D)
Aaron Flint (R)
|
| 5/5/2026 |
Upswing Research
for 314 Action |
401 LV |
Sam Forstag (D)
Aaron Flint (R)
|
| 4/1/2026 | Tulchin Research | 400 LV |
Ryan Busse (D)
Russell Cleveland (D)
Sam Forstag (D)
Matt Rains (D)
|
| 1/15/2026 |
Peak Insights
for Leadership in Action |
400 LV |
Ryan Zinke (R)
Sam Forstag (D)
|
| 11/25/2025 |
Tulchin Research
for No Surrender Fund |
424 LV |
Ryan Busse (D)
Ryan Zinke (R)
|