KY-06 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
50% Dem
Rep 50%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Zach Dembo | 50% |
| Ralph Alvarado | 49% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 26% | 10/29/2026: 50% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 72% | 10/29/2026: 49% |
Poll average
6 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+5.8
Zach Dembo (D)
46%
Ralph Alvarado (R)
40.2%
Jay Bowman (I)
4%
Pete Lynch (O)
1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado | Republican |
| Zach Dembo | Democrat |
| Pete Lynch | Other |
| Jay J. Bowman | Independent |
KY-06 House race: polls over time
14 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ralph Alvarado 40.2%
Zach Dembo 46%
Ryan Dotson 26%
Adam Perez Arquette 1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado | 40.2% | 12 | 10/20/2026 |
| Zach Dembo | 46% | 10 | 10/20/2026 |
| Ryan Dotson | 26% | 4 | 5/7/2026 |
| Adam Perez Arquette | 1% | 3 | 5/7/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/19–10/20 | 572 LV |
Ralph Alvarado (R)
Zach Dembo (D)
|
| Change Research | 9/29–10/5 | 524 LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 10/2–10/5 | 606 LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
Jay Bowman (I)
Pete Lynch (O)
|
| Lake Research Partners | 9/30–10/4 | 400 LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
|
| Lake Research Partners | 9/30–10/4 | 400 LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
Jay Bowman (I)
Pete Lynch (O)
|
| GQR | 9/25–9/30 | 401 LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
|
| Lake Research Partners | 8/17–8/23 | — LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 7/29–7/30 | 474 LV |
Zach Dembo (D)
Ralph Alvarado (R)
|
| GQR | 6/24–6/28 | — LV |
Ralph Alvarado (R)
Zach Dembo (D)
|
| 1892 Polling | 5/4–5/7 | 400 LV |
Ralph Alvarado (R)
Ryan Dotson (R)
Greg Plucinski (R)
Steve Shannon (R)
Adam Perez Arquette (R)
|