KY-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
4% Dem
Rep 96%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Melissa Strange | 4% |
| Ed Gallrein | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
Poll average
4 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Ed Gallrein (R)
48%
Thomas Massie (R)
44.7%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein | Republican |
| Melissa Strange | Democrat |
| Jeremy Todd | Libertarian |
| Mohammad Wael Ahmad | Other |
KY-04 House race: polls over time
6 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ed Gallrein 48.1%
Thomas Massie 44.7%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein | 48.1% | 6 | 5/17/2026 |
| Thomas Massie | 44.7% | 6 | 5/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | 5/16–5/17 | 435 LV |
Ed Gallrein (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|
| Neighborhood Research Corporation | 5/12–5/15 | 291 LV |
Ed Gallrein (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|
| Big Data Poll | 5/12–5/14 | 518 LV |
Thomas Massie (R)
Ed Gallrein (R)
|
| Quantus Insights | 5/11–5/12 | 908 LV |
Ed Gallrein (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|
| Big Data Poll | 4/3–4/7 | 433 LV |
Thomas Massie (R)
Ed Gallrein (R)
|
| Quantus Insights | 4/6–4/7 | 438 LV |
Thomas Massie (R)
Ed Gallrein (R)
|
| Kaplan Strategies | 6/23–6/24 | 368 LV |
Nicole Lee Ethington (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|