KY-04 House race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Thomas Massie at 44.7%, Ed Gallrein at 48.1%, Nicole Lee Ethington at 31%, based on 7 polls ending between 6/24/2025 and 5/17/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
KY-04 House race 2026 over time
7 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Thomas Massie 44.7%
Ed Gallrein 48.1%
Nicole Lee Ethington 31%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Massie | 44.7% | 7 | 5/17/2026 |
| Ed Gallrein | 48.1% | 6 | 5/17/2026 |
| Nicole Lee Ethington | 31% | 1 | 6/24/2025 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 7 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Thomas Massie | 42.4% |
| Ed Gallrein | 46.3% |
| Nicole Lee Ethington | 31% |
Individual polls (7)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/2026 | GrayHouse | 435 LV |
Ed Gallrein (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|
| 5/15/2026 | Neighborhood Research Corporation | 291 LV |
Ed Gallrein (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|
| 5/14/2026 |
Big Data Poll
for Public Polling Project |
518 LV |
Thomas Massie (R)
Ed Gallrein (R)
|
| 5/12/2026 | Quantus Insights | 908 LV |
Ed Gallrein (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|
| 4/7/2026 |
Big Data Poll
for Public Polling Project |
433 LV |
Thomas Massie (R)
Ed Gallrein (R)
|
| 4/7/2026 | Quantus Insights | 438 LV |
Thomas Massie (R)
Ed Gallrein (R)
|
| 6/24/2025 | Kaplan Strategies | 368 LV |
Nicole Lee Ethington (R)
Thomas Massie (R)
|