IA-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
92% Dem
Rep 7%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Christina Bohannan | 93% |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 9% | |
| Michael Bridgford | 1% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Christina Bohannan | 94% |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 6% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/5/2026: 69% | 10/29/2026: 93% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 70% | 10/29/2026: 94% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 33% | 10/29/2026: 9% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 28% | 10/29/2026: 6% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+5.0
Christina Bohannan (D)
40%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
35%
Michael Bridgford (I)
11%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Republican |
| Christina Bohannan | Democrat |
| Michael Bridgford | Independent |
IA-01 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Christina Bohannan 40%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35%
Michael Bridgford 11%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Bohannan | 40% | 1 | 7/16/2026 |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 35% | 1 | 7/16/2026 |
| Michael Bridgford | 11% | 1 | 7/16/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | 7/13–7/16 | 705 LV |
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Christina Bohannan (D)
Michael Bridgford (I)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 6/18–6/19 | 555 A |
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Christina Bohannan (D)
|