FL-14 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
70% Dem
Rep 30%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Kathy Castor | 69% |
| Mike Beltran | 29% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 56% | 10/29/2026: 69% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 41% | 10/29/2026: 29% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+5.0
Kathy Castor (D)
48%
Mike Beltran (R)
43%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mike Beltran | Republican |
| Kathy Castor | Democrat |
| Brian Lambert | Libertarian |
FL-14 House race: polls over time
5 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Kevin Steele 32.7%
Mike Beltran 43%
Bea Valenti 9.9%
Ergin Tek 2.3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Steele | 32.7% | 4 | 8/8/2026 |
| Mike Beltran | 43% | 4 | 10/14/2026 |
| Bea Valenti | 9.9% | 3 | 8/8/2026 |
| Ergin Tek | 2.3% | 3 | 8/8/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 315 LV |
Kathy Castor (D)
Mike Beltran (R)
|
| Catalyst | 8/6–8/8 | 556 LV |
Mike Beltran (R)
Kevin Steele (R)
Bea Valenti (R)
Rocky Rochford (R)
Ergin Tek (R)
John Peters (R)
Michael Marcel (R)
Gavriel Soriano (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 8/4–8/6 | — LV |
Kevin Steele (R)
Mike Beltran (R)
Bea Valenti (R)
Ergin Tek (R)
Gavriel Soriano (R)
John Peters (R)
Rocky Rochford (R)
|
| St. Pete Polls | 7/14–7/15 | 376 LV |
Mike Beltran (R)
Kevin Steele (R)
John Peters (R)
Bea Valenti (R)
Rocky Rochford (R)
Ergin Tek (R)
Michael Marcel (R)
Gavriel Soriano (R)
|
| St. Pete Polls | 7/14–7/15 | 469 LV |
Kathy Castor (D)
Kevin Steele (R)
|