CA-23 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
3% Dem
Rep 97%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Tessa Lynn Hodge | 3% |
| Jay Obernolte | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 14% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 86% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+43.1
Jay Obernolte (R)
48.4%
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)
5.3%
Karen Matthews (I)
4.5%
Alexis Claiborne (D)
2.6%
Pat Wallis (D)
2.6%
Edwin Alonzo (D)
2.5%
David Jones (D)
1.4%
Paul Chakalian (D)
1.1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte | Republican |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge | Democrat |
CA-23 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Alexis Claiborne 2.6%
David Jones 1.4%
Edwin Alonzo 2.5%
Jay Obernolte 48.4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Claiborne | 2.6% | 1 | 3/20/2026 |
| David Jones | 1.4% | 1 | 3/20/2026 |
| Edwin Alonzo | 2.5% | 1 | 3/20/2026 |
| Jay Obernolte | 48.4% | 1 | 3/20/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 3/17–3/20 | 601 LV |
Jay Obernolte (R)
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)
Karen Matthews (I)
Alexis Claiborne (D)
Pat Wallis (D)
Edwin Alonzo (D)
David Jones (D)
Paul Chakalian (D)
|