CA-06 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
98% Dem
Rep 2%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Democratic Party | 96% |
| Republican Party | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Richard Pan (D)
36.7%
Kevin Kiley (I)
36.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Richard Pan | Democrat |
| Kevin Kiley | Other |
CA-06 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Richard Pan 36.7%
Kevin Kiley 36.5%
Lauren Babb Tomlinson 11%
Martha Guerrero 9%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Pan | 36.7% | 4 | 9/6/2026 |
| Kevin Kiley | 36.5% | 3 | 9/6/2026 |
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | 11% | 2 | 5/6/2026 |
| Martha Guerrero | 9% | 2 | 5/6/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | 9/1–9/6 | 927 LV |
Richard Pan (D)
Kevin Kiley (I)
|
| The Bullfinch Group | 7/13–7/16 | 741 LV |
Richard Pan (D)
Kevin Kiley (I)
|
| EMC Research | 5/3–5/6 | 400 LV |
Kevin Kiley (I)
Richard Pan (D)
Thien Ho (D)
Lauren Babb Tomlinson (D)
Martha Guerrero (D)
Michael Stansfield (R)
Tyler Vandenberg (D)
|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2/16–2/19 | 400 LV |
Raymond Riehle (R)
Christine Bish (R)
Richard Pan (D)
Lauren Babb Tomlinson (D)
Martha Guerrero (D)
Thien Ho (D)
Tyler Vandenberg (D)
|