AZ-06 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
88% Dem
Rep 12%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | JoAnna Mendoza | 89% |
| Juan Ciscomani | 12% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | JoAnna Mendoza | 89% |
| Juan Ciscomani | 12% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 82% | 10/29/2026: 89% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 78% | 10/29/2026: 89% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/7/2026: 19% | 10/29/2026: 12% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 22% | 10/29/2026: 12% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.0
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
47%
Juan Ciscomani (R)
45%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| JoAnna Mendoza | Democrat |
| Juan Ciscomani | Republican |
| Gary Swing | Green |
| Jereme Peters | Libertarian |
| Michael Dorland | Independent |
AZ-06 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
JoAnna Mendoza 47%
Juan Ciscomani 45%
Dem 43%
Rep 42%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| JoAnna Mendoza | 47% | 2 | 6/11/2026 |
| Juan Ciscomani | 45% | 2 | 6/11/2026 |
| Dem | 43% | 1 | 3/14/2026 |
| Rep | 42% | 1 | 3/14/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 6/8–6/11 | 500 LV |
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
Juan Ciscomani (R)
|
| Ragnar Research Partners | 3/12–3/14 | 400 LV |
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
Juan Ciscomani (R)
|
| Ragnar Research Partners | 3/12–3/14 | 400 LV |
Rep
Dem
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/14–10/15 | 581 LV |
Juan Ciscomani (R)
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
|