AZ-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
96% Dem
Rep 4%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Greg Stanton | 96% |
| Zuhdi Jasser | 4% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 86% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 14% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Greg Stanton (D)
51%
Kai Newkirk (D)
30.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Greg Stanton | Democrat |
| Zuhdi Jasser | Republican |
| Steven Sanders | Other |
| Tisha Benoit | Other |
AZ-04 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Greg Stanton 51%
Kai Newkirk 30.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Stanton | 51% | 2 | 7/8/2026 |
| Kai Newkirk | 30.5% | 2 | 7/8/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braun Research | 7/6–7/8 | 424 LV |
Greg Stanton (D)
Kai Newkirk (D)
|
| FM3 Research | 6/27–6/29 | 422 RV |
Greg Stanton (D)
Kai Newkirk (D)
|