AZ-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
78% Dem
Rep 22%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Amish Shah | 79% |
| Jay Feely | 23% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Amish Shah | 79% |
| Jay Feely | 21% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/5/2026: 72% | 10/29/2026: 79% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 71% | 10/29/2026: 79% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/9/2026: 30% | 10/29/2026: 23% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 22% | 10/29/2026: 21% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.8
Amish Shah (D)
44.4%
Jay Feely (R)
41.6%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Amish Shah | Democrat |
| Jay Feely | Republican |
| Monica Alponte | Libertarian |
| Dev Gupta | Independent |
| Gage Dylan Thunder | Other |
AZ-01 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jay Feely 41.6%
Amish Shah 44.4%
John Trobough 5.7%
Joseph Chaplik 23.1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Feely | 41.6% | 3 | 10/1/2026 |
| Amish Shah | 44.4% | 2 | 10/1/2026 |
| John Trobough | 5.7% | 2 | 6/17/2026 |
| Joseph Chaplik | 23.1% | 2 | 6/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategic | 10/1–10/1 | 400 LV |
Amish Shah (D)
Jay Feely (R)
|
| NextGenP | 6/16–6/17 | 695 LV |
Jay Feely (R)
Joseph Chaplik (R)
John Trobough (R)
|
| NextGenP | 4/13–4/16 | 409 RV |
Joseph Chaplik (R)
Jay Feely (R)
John Trobough (R)
|
| HighGround | 2/21–2/23 | 400 LV |
Amish Shah (D)
Marlene Galan-Woods (D)
Mark Gordon (D)
Rick McCartney (D)
Jonathan Treble (D)
|