Tennessee governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
6% Dem
Rep 92%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Jerri Green | 6% |
| Marsha Blackburn | 94% | |
| David Hatley | 3% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jerri Green | 6% |
| Marsha Blackburn | 94% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 6% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 6% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 94% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/29/2026: 94% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+12.0
Marsha Blackburn (R)
44%
Jerri Green (D)
32%
David Hatley (I)
12%
Lauren Pinkston (I)
1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Marsha Blackburn | Republican |
| Jerri Green | Democrat |
Tennessee governor's race: polls over time
13 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Marsha Blackburn 44%
John Rose 28%
Monty Fritts 23.8%
Jerri Green 32%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsha Blackburn | 44% | 13 | 10/16/2026 |
| John Rose | 28% | 9 | 7/28/2026 |
| Monty Fritts | 23.8% | 8 | 7/28/2026 |
| Jerri Green | 32% | 4 | 10/16/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies | 10/10–10/16 | 635 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Jerri Green (D)
David Hatley (I)
Lauren Pinkston (I)
|
| TargetSmart | 9/9–9/12 | 600 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Jerri Green (D)
David Hatley (I)
Lauren Pinkston (I)
|
| Targoz Market Research | 8/15–8/26 | 1,149 RV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Jerri Green (D)
Independent
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 7/26–7/28 | 800 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
John Rose (R)
Monty Fritts (R)
|
| OnMessage Inc. | 7/23–7/25 | 800 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
John Rose (R)
Monty Fritts (R)
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 6/28–6/30 | 800 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
John Rose (R)
Monty Fritts (R)
|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 6/28–6/30 | 600 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
John Rose (R)
Monty Fritts (R)
|
| Targoz Market Research | 4/20–4/27 | 1,157 RV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Jerri Green (D)
|
| VictoryPhones | 3/18–3/24 | 300 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
John Rose (R)
Monty Fritts (R)
|
| Cygnal Political | 3/16–3/17 | 500 LV |
Marsha Blackburn (R)
John Rose (R)
|