Pennsylvania governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
98% Dem
Rep 2%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Josh Shapiro | 98% |
| Stacy Garrity | 3% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Josh Shapiro | 98% |
| Stacy Garrity | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 95% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 95% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 5% | 10/29/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
8 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+23.5
Josh Shapiro (D)
56.9%
Stacy Garrity (R)
33.4%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | Democrat |
| Stacy Garrity | Republican |
| Ken Krawchuk | Libertarian |
Pennsylvania governor's race: polls over time
22 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Josh Shapiro 58%
Stacy Garrity 34%
Ken Krawchuk 2.5%
Tony Dastra 2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | 58% | 22 | 10/21/2026 |
| Stacy Garrity | 34% | 22 | 10/21/2026 |
| Ken Krawchuk | 2.5% | 2 | 10/5/2026 |
| Tony Dastra | 2% | 1 | 8/23/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 10/1–10/21 | 400 LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|
| Franklin & Marshall College | 10/7–10/18 | — LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|
| Bravo Group | 10/5–10/11 | 628 RV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|
| Quinnipiac University | 10/1–10/5 | 1,159 LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
Ken Krawchuk (L)
|
| Z to A Research | 9/28–10/1 | 630 LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
Ken Krawchuk (L)
|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | 9/22–9/30 | 700 LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|
| Bravo Group | 9/16–9/22 | 624 RV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 9/15–9/22 | 615 LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|
| Franklin & Marshall College | 8/17–8/23 | 501 RV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
Tony Dastra (G)
|
| Bravo Group | 8/18–8/22 | 711 LV |
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R)
|