Maryland governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Wes Moore | 97% |
| Dan Cox | 3% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Wes Moore | 98% |
| Dan Cox | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 93% | 10/29/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+27.0
Wes Moore (D)
51%
Dan Cox (R)
24%
Andy Ellis (G)
3%
Cathy White (O)
3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Wes Moore | Democrat |
| Dan Cox | Republican |
| Andy Ellis | Green |
| Cathy White | Other |
Maryland governor's race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Wes Moore 51%
Dan Cox 24%
Andy Ellis 3%
Cathy White 3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Moore | 51% | 3 | 9/27/2026 |
| Dan Cox | 24% | 2 | 9/27/2026 |
| Andy Ellis | 3% | 1 | 9/27/2026 |
| Cathy White | 3% | 1 | 9/27/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland Baltimore County Institute of Politics | 9/22–9/27 | 776 LV |
Wes Moore (D)
Dan Cox (R)
Andy Ellis (G)
Cathy White (O)
|
| Zenith Research | 7/27–8/3 | 800 LV |
Wes Moore (D)
Dan Cox (R)
|
| Gonzales Research | 12/21–1/6 | 808 LV |
Wes Moore (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| University of Maryland Baltimore County | 10/21–10/25 | 757 RV |
Wes Moore (D)
Generic Republican (R)
Generic Candidate (O)
|
| OpinionWorks | 10/7–10/10 | 928 RV |
Wes Moore (D)
Larry Hogan (R)
|