Florida governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
29% Dem
Rep 71%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | David Jolly | 29% |
| Byron Donalds | 70% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | David Jolly | 29% |
| Byron Donalds | 72% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 23% | 10/29/2026: 29% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 21% | 10/29/2026: 29% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 77% | 10/29/2026: 70% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 76% | 10/29/2026: 72% |
Poll average
17 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+4.7
Byron Donalds (R)
48.4%
David Jolly (D)
43.7%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | Republican |
| David Jolly | Democrat |
| Scott Eckhard Jewett | Libertarian |
| Dean Ocean Abrams | Independent |
| Charles Burkett | Independent |
| Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto | Independent |
| Moliere "Moe" Dimanche | Independent |
| Frank J. Russo | Independent |
Florida governor's race: polls over time
59 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Byron Donalds 48.5%
David Jolly 43.9%
James Fishback 10.9%
Jay Collins 15.3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 48.5% | 54 | 10/27/2026 |
| David Jolly | 43.9% | 38 | 10/27/2026 |
| James Fishback | 10.9% | 18 | 7/29/2026 |
| Jay Collins | 15.3% | 18 | 7/29/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 10/25–10/27 | 916 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/19–10/25 | 813 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| Echelon Insights | 10/16–10/23 | 515 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
Scott Jewett
|
| co/efficient | 10/18–10/20 | 1,014 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| ActiVote | 10/1–10/19 | 400 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| University of North Florida | 10/12–10/19 | 1,378 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| YouGov | 10/2–10/15 | 825 RV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 10/8–10/11 | 1,200 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| Change Research | 10/8–10/10 | 920 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|
| MDW Communications | 10/4–10/10 | 2,351 LV |
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D)
|