Alaska governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
No market yet
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 89% |
| Bernadette Wilson | 11% | |
| David Bronson | <1% | |
| Click Bishop | <1% | |
| Adam Crum | <1% | |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | <1% | |
| Edna DeVries | <1% | |
| Matt Heilala | <1% | |
| Shelley Hughes | <1% | |
| James Parkin | <1% | |
| Treg Taylor | <1% | |
| Lisa Murkowski | <1% | |
| Tom Begich | <1% | |
| Mary Peltola | <1% | |
| Hank Kroll | <1% | |
| Bruce Walden | <1% | |
| Matt Claman | <1% | |
| Lesil McGuire | <1% | |
| Gregg Brelsford | <1% | |
| Jessica Faircloth | <1% | |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | <1% | |
| Bill Walker | <1% |
Poll average
5 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+9.4
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
51.5%
Bernadette Wilson (R)
42.1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Dave Bronson | Republican |
| Jonathan S. “JKT” Kreiss-Tomkins | Democrat |
| James W. “JP4” Parkin | Republican |
| Treg Taylor | Republican |
| Bernadette M. Wilson | Republican |
Alaska governor's race: polls over time
19 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bernadette Wilson 46.2%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 53.8%
Tom Begich 34%
Dave Bronson 17%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernadette Wilson | 46.2% | 19 | 10/25/2026 |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 53.8% | 12 | 10/25/2026 |
| Tom Begich | 34% | 12 | 7/19/2026 |
| Dave Bronson | 17% | 9 | 9/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/23–10/25 | 1,068 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 10/15–10/18 | 1,568 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
|
| Data for Progress | 10/8–10/16 | 629 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 9/24–10/1 | 431 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
|
| Cygnal | 9/24–9/27 | 502 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
David Bronson
Treg Taylor (R)
|
| co/efficient | 9/14–9/17 | 799 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
Dave Bronson (R)
Treg Taylor (R)
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 9/8–9/11 | 800 LV |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
|
| Change Research | 7/17–7/19 | 604 LV |
Tom Begich (D)
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
Bill Walker (I)
Dave Bronson (R)
Adam Crum (R)
Click Bishop (R)
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 6/30–7/1 | 1,528 RV |
Tom Begich (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 6/24–6/25 | 529 LV |
Tom Begich (D)
Dave Bronson (R)
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)
Click Bishop (R)
Bill Walker (I)
Matt Claman (D)
|