2028 Presidential race
Our 21-day average puts JD Vance at 34%, Gavin Newsom at 44%, Generic Democrat at 54%, Generic Republican at 42%, based on 32 polls ending between 12/20/2024 and 10/14/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
2028 Presidential race over time
32 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
JD Vance 34%
Gavin Newsom 44%
Generic Democrat 54%
Generic Republican 42%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 34% | 19 | 10/14/2026 |
| Gavin Newsom | 44% | 11 | 5/20/2026 |
| Generic Democrat | 54% | 6 | 8/17/2026 |
| Generic Republican | 42% | 6 | 8/17/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 32 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| JD Vance | 42.7% |
| Gavin Newsom | 46.2% |
| Generic Democrat | 43.2% |
| Generic Republican | 38% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 40% |
| Kamala Harris | 45.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 40.7% |
| Jon Ossoff | 47.4% |
Individual polls (32)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/31/2025 | Leger | 1,014 A |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 8/26/2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV |
JD Vance (R)
Gavin Newsom (D)
|
| 7/22/2025 | Emerson College | 1,400 RV |
JD Vance (R)
Gavin Newsom (D)
|
| 6/26/2025 |
Targoz Market Research
for Overton Insights |
1,200 RV |
JD Vance (R)
Charles Barkley (D)
|
| 6/25/2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 3/28/2025 |
Targoz Market Research
for Overton Insights |
1,200 RV |
Kamala Harris (D)
JD Vance (R)
Matthew McConaughey (I)
|
| 12/20/2024 | American Pulse Research & Polling | 661 LV |
Kamala Harris (D)
JD Vance (R)
|