2028 Presidential race
Our 21-day average puts JD Vance at 34%, Gavin Newsom at 44%, Generic Democrat at 54%, Generic Republican at 42%, based on 32 polls ending between 12/20/2024 and 10/14/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
2028 Presidential race over time
32 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
JD Vance 34%
Gavin Newsom 44%
Generic Democrat 54%
Generic Republican 42%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 34% | 19 | 10/14/2026 |
| Gavin Newsom | 44% | 11 | 5/20/2026 |
| Generic Democrat | 54% | 6 | 8/17/2026 |
| Generic Republican | 42% | 6 | 8/17/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 32 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| JD Vance | 42.7% |
| Gavin Newsom | 46.2% |
| Generic Democrat | 43.2% |
| Generic Republican | 38% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 40% |
| Kamala Harris | 45.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 40.7% |
| Jon Ossoff | 47.4% |
Individual polls (32)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/14/2026 |
YouGov
for Pablo Torre Finds Out | The Bulwark |
1,413 A |
Pete Buttigieg (D)
JD Vance (R)
Aaron Rodgers (I)
|
| 10/4/2026 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 1,000 LV |
Hunter Biden (D)
Donald Trump Jr. (R)
|
| 8/28/2026 | Quantus Insights | 1,200 LV |
JD Vance (R)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
|
| 8/17/2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV |
Jon Ossoff (D)
Marco Rubio (R)
|
| 8/17/2026 | Leger | 832 LV |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 7/4/2026 | Zogby Analytics | 1,003 LV |
Kamala Harris (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 5/20/2026 | Overton Insights | 1,377 RV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 4/20/2026 | Leger | 1,004 A |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 3/30/2026 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 1,000 A |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
Tucker Carlson (R)
|
| 3/10/2026 | Focaldata | 1,782 A |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
Marco Rubio (R)
|
| 2/28/2026 | The Public Sentiment Institute | 249 LV |
Dean Withers (D)
Nick Fuentes (R)
|
| 2/18/2026 |
Big Data Poll
for 1776 Law Center | Public Polling Project |
1,805 LV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
Thomas Massie (I)
|
| 2/12/2026 |
YouGov
for Yahoo News |
1,146 RV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 1/15/2026 | Research Co. | 1,002 A |
Barack Obama (D)
Donald Trump (R)
|
| 1/7/2026 | Zogby Analytics | 891 LV |
Kamala Harris (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 12/11/2025 | The Argument/Verasight | 1,521 RV |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 11/17/2025 | The Argument/Verasight | 1,508 RV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 11/16/2025 | Morning Consult | 2,201 RV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
Marco Rubio (R)
|
| 11/14/2025 | High Point University | 837 RV |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 10/29/2025 |
Targoz Market Research
for Overton Insights |
1,200 RV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 10/20/2025 | Echelon Insights | 1,010 LV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
|
| 10/20/2025 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 1,000 A |
JD Vance (R)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
|
| 10/14/2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV |
JD Vance (R)
Gavin Newsom (D)
|
| 9/29/2025 | Leger | 1,010 A |
Generic Democrat (D)
Generic Republican (R)
|
| 9/2/2025 |
YouGov
for Yahoo News |
1,138 RV |
Gavin Newsom (D)
JD Vance (R)
|