South Dakota Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
<1% Dem
Rep 95%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Julian Beaudion | <1% |
| Mike Rounds | 95% | |
| Brian Bengs | 5% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Democrat | <1% |
| Mike Rounds | 95% | |
| Brian Bengs | 4% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/8/2026: 2% | 10/29/2026: <1% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 4% | 10/29/2026: <1% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: 95% |
Poll average
6 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Mike Rounds (R)
52.3%
Brian Bengs (I)
40.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | Republican |
| Brian Bengs | Independent |
South Dakota Senate race: polls over time
14 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Mike Rounds 52.2%
Brian Bengs 39.2%
Julian Beaudion 18%
Justin McNeal 18%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | 52.2% | 14 | 10/20/2026 |
| Brian Bengs | 39.2% | 12 | 10/20/2026 |
| Julian Beaudion | 18% | 2 | 5/30/2026 |
| Justin McNeal | 18% | 1 | 4/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/19–10/20 | 803 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Quantus Insights | 10/17–10/19 | 657 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 10/12–10/16 | 500 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Mason-Dixon | 10/12–10/14 | 500 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 10/6–10/8 | 400 LV |
Brian Bengs (I)
Mike Rounds (R)
|
| Zenith Research | 9/24–9/27 | 500 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 9/8–9/9 | 629 RV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Lake Research Partners | 8/26–8/30 | 500 LV |
Brian Bengs (I)
Mike Rounds (R)
|
| Impact Research | 8/13–8/17 | 500 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 7/6–7/9 | 500 LV |
Mike Rounds (R)
Brian Bengs (I)
|