Rhode Island Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
99% Dem
Rep 1%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Jack Reed | 99% |
| Raymond McKay | <1% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jack Reed | 98% |
| Raymond McKay | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/4/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: 99% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 4% | 10/29/2026: <1% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+25.6
Jack Reed (D)
55.7%
Raymond McKay (R)
30.1%
Michael Bahry (I)
5.3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| John F. Reed | Democrat |
| Raymond T. McKay | Republican |
| Michael Bahry | Independent |
Rhode Island Senate race: polls over time
8 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jack Reed 55.7%
Raymond McKay 30.2%
Michael Bahry 5.3%
Connor Burbridge 12.2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reed | 55.7% | 8 | 10/11/2026 |
| Raymond McKay | 30.2% | 6 | 10/11/2026 |
| Michael Bahry | 5.3% | 4 | 10/11/2026 |
| Connor Burbridge | 12.2% | 2 | 8/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/8–10/11 | 800 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R)
Michael Bahry (I)
|
| Embold Research | 10/5–10/8 | 815 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R)
Michael Bahry (I)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 9/17–9/21 | 598 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R)
Michael Bahry (I)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 8/20–8/24 | 750 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R)
Michael Bahry (I)
|
| Embold Research | 8/3–8/11 | 553 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Connor Burbridge (D)
Luis Daniel Munoz (I)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 6/18–6/23 | 664 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 4/16–4/20 | 556 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Raymond McKay (R)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 4/16–4/20 | 323 LV |
Jack Reed (D)
Connor Burbridge (D)
|